Warmest March and a Cold Winter: science agencies explain a climate conundrum

This winter's harsh weather has provided fodder for those who debunk the issue of global warming and climate change. In fact, with any brief fluctuation in weather patterns, opponents of climate change jump on the chance to dismiss the big picture climate patterns that are being closely monitored by many scientific and federal agencies. Of course, along with that comes the cries of conspiracies supported by foul-mouth online comments that I won't even bother addressing.

With Washington D.C. experiencing heavy snows recently, climate change critic Sen. James Inhofe and his family constructed an igloo near the US capitol. As reported by Geoff Mohan in the Los Angeles Times, what the senator fails to appreciate is the explanation for this winter's weather given by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (no whacko organization here): Arctic oscillation, a cyclical change in air pressure over the Arctic that alters weather patterns in the northern hemisphere. While this oscillation was somewhat varied over the past century, changing from positive (drier) to negative (colder) phases, since the 1970s it has favored the positive phase. But this year there was a switch to the negative phase.

There will always be climate fluctuations, but one must look towards the larger trends. And that is what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), another non-partisan federal agency not prone to exaggeration, did with its just-released Global Climate Analysis for March 2010. Seems last month was, globally, the warmest March on record with the first quarter of the year being the fourth warmest 1st quarter on record. "On record" means going back to 1880.

So often we miss the bigger picture because we get wrapped up in day-to-day events that may actually represent anomalies or minor fluctuations. In essence, we miss the forest for the trees. And despite what might be said about some studies from scientists who may or may not have been wholly accurate with their research, there are plenty of respected agencies and research groups that are reaching and supporting the scientific conclusions that celebrity spokespeople, like Vice President Al Gore, have attempted to bring to the public's attention only to be pilloried as self-serving opportunists.

We miss the forest for the trees. And someday we could miss the forest because there are no trees.

Read the LA Times article.
Read the NOAA report summary.
Read the NSIDC explanation of Arctic oscillation.
View this Nat Geo video on climate change:

Arctic Summer Sea Ice 2008: Update

On August 6th, I posted a a status report on summer sea ice conditions in the Arctic and the possibility that it might be better than last year's all-time record low. Here's an update from the Associated Press:

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is at its second lowest level in nearly 30 years and with three weeks left in the Arctic summer, this year could wind up breaking last September's all-time record. Arctic ice melts in the summer and refreezes in the winter but more and more ice is being lost to the sea and not recovered in the winter. Ice reflects the sun's heat while the open ocean absorbs more heat and the melting accelerates warming in other parts of the world.

"We could very well be in that quick slide downward in terms of passing a tipping point," said senior scientist Mark Serreze at the data center. The melting causes "Arctic amplification" where the warming up north is increased in a feedback mechanism and the effects spill southward in the autumn as more warm water releases more heat into the air, making the atmosphere warmer than normal. "Climate warming is coming larger and faster than the models are predicting," Serreze said.

The condition of the Arctic Circle is a perfect barometer for what lies ahead in southern climates. We must pay attention.