The 800-Pound Gorilla: population growth will make the world unrecognizable says scientist

The 800-pound gorilla in the room is getting restless again. I've used that metaphor in the past to describe the growing human population that is driving so much of our consume-not conserve behavior. At the recent annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the issue of population growth, and what toll that will take on our natural resources, was raised again by Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund.

The United Nations has predicted that the global population will reach 7 billion this year. It is also predicted to reach 9 billion by 2050. What we will have to do to feed us all in 40 years is nothing short of staggering. According to Clay, "We will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000."

Most of the population growth will take place in developing countries, particularly Africa and South Asia. Not only will the shear number of people have a detrimental effect on our natural resources, but so will a disproportionately higher rate of consumption.

As populations increase, there is also an increase or improvement in the economic status of a portion of that population (globally, incomes are expected to triple, while developing nations will see a five-fold increase). An improvement in lifestyle also means an increase in food consumption.

Urging scientists and governments to begin making changes in food production now, Clay told the Associated Foreign Press (AFP), "More people, more money, more consumption, but the same planet."

Meat consumption is expected to increase, but the solution is more complex than just raising more cattle or chickens. It takes seven pounds of grain to produce one pound of meat. And to produce that additional seven pounds of grain it takes more land, water, fertilizers, herbicides, and so on. Multiply that by the millions of pounds of meat that will be needed by 2050, and you can begin to see the scope of the problem.

Clay warned that if current trends continue, "By 2050 we will not have a planet left that is recognizable."

Family planning will begin to become more and more of a reality. Hopefully, society will see the importance of controlling the population without resorting to draconian steps like the punitive steps in China's second-child policy. If the people realize and react to the growing impact of population growth on the environment and food prices before governments do, then perhaps there lies our best chance at keeping the 800-pound gorilla at bay.

ICCAT & Tuna: "extraordinary" meeting - depends on who you ask

One final report on ICCAT (International Convention for Conservation of Atlantic Tuna) and the conclusions from its recent annual meeting: the future of bluefin tuna in 2011. As reported earlier, bluefin tuna - particularly Atlantic and Mediterranean tuna - are on perilously shaky ground. ICCAT currently limits its members to a catch quota of 13,500 tons of tuna. This past weekend in Paris, ICCAT set a new level for next year: 12,900 tons - a reduction of only 600 tons or 4 percent.

In ICCAT's press release, the meeting was described as "extraordinary."

Here is how the AAAS (American Association for the Advancement of Science) summed it up:

"At its annual meeting last year, ICCAT decided to set catch levels so that bluefin tuna would have at least a 60% chance of recovering by 2022. In October, ICCAT's scientific advisory committee reported that this goal could be met by keeping annual catch limits at the current level of 13,500 tons. Improving the chances of recovery, they added, would require cutting catch levels to below 6000 tons. On Saturday, ICCAT member countries agreed (pdf) to a 12,900-ton ceiling for eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean bluefin tuna."

Here is how Oceana, who was in attendance to promote a range of tuna, billfish, turtle, and shark conservation measures, described the meeting's conclusions:

"While ICCAT reduced the allowed catch for eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna to 12,900 tonnes, this four percent reduction is almost laughable. Furthermore, ICCAT failed completely to take action to establish spawning ground sanctuaries, a basic and much-needed management measure. Oceana supports a closure of the bluefin tuna fishery until a system is in place that follows scientific advice on catch levels, ensures stock recovery, stops illegal fishing, and protects spawning areas in the Gulf of Mexico and Mediterranean Sea.

'This trivial quota reduction for the eastern bluefin tuna stock is a political decision, not a science-based one,' said Maria Jose Cornax, fisheries campaigns manager for Oceana. 'Without an industrial fishing closure, it actually encourages illegal fishing and fails to ensure stock recovery. This political outcome is not good for the fish or the fisherman, and will certainly result in further stock depletion.'”

Analogous to ICCAT and the economic interests it protects, is the energy/fossil fuel industry. Oil companies could break the back of our fossil fuel addiction in relatively short order with a major commitment and shift to alternative energy sources. They could dominate that new market as surely as they dominate oil and the environment would probably be the better for it in the end. But their focus is primarily on sustaining current business models with just enough token support in alternative energy so as to appear as if they are forward-thinking. They know what the future holds in store but choose not to fully address it.

ICCAT is following the same path, sustaining a dying fishing industry at the expense of dwindling marine species. Conservation groups, to their credit, will continue to pressure ICCAT to reconsider its fundamental strategy of minimal change for the sake of short-term financial goals. But what will it take? An empty sea?

Read the ICCAT press release.
Read the AAAS Science article on the ICCAT meeting.
Read Oceana's article on the ICCAT meeting.

Science Debate: dedicated to bringing science out of the shadows

It's been a while since I have mentioned ScienceDebate.org. This is an organization dedicated to revitalizing the position of science within public awareness and the policy-making decision process. This is something I feel strongly about: the role of science is critical with regards to many of the worldwide issues facing us today. Whether it is climate change, alternative energy, conservation, or medicine - the information that we will need to make decisions and set policy will come from the research and data that science produces.

And yet society has lost touch with much of the scientific world, seeing science as obscure or irrelevant. But, especially today, that couldn't be further from the truth. And whose to blame? Well, it's a little bit between both sides. Society has lost interest in science, perhaps with the end of the space race. By reaching the moon, one of the most momentous goals was reached by man and we have perhaps been living in the letdown of that event ever since.

But the science community has also allowed that to happen. By not making mass communication a vital component of their research, by not realizing that reaching the layman with the results and implications of their research is almost as important as the research itself, they have stepped back into the academic shadows and must now fight for attention and funding.

ScienceDebate.org tries to close that gap. Here is a link to two video clips from their web site: an MSNBC interview with Chris Mooney, ScienceDebate's founder, and a portion of a speech by Vice President Al Gore to a group of scientists at a meeting of the AAAS. I found both clips very interesting.

According to Chris Mooney, a recent survey showed that 84% of scientists believe that global warming is man-made (so there is some room for healthy debate on the issue). But only 49% of the general public believe the same. That discrepancy is indicative of the problem.

Click here to watch the videos at the ScienceDebate.org web site and learn what ScienceDebate.org is all about.

Marine Life & Climate Change: possible species invasion & extinction

Seaweb.org recently reported on a study published in the journal Fish and Fisheries which provided projections as to marine species invasion and extinction due to climate change, specifically the increasing ocean temperatures. The projections were based on climate change models including those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The results of William Cheung and his colleagues at Canada's University of British Columbia were also presented at a recent Chicago meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

What the report postulated was that with increasing ocean temperatures, many marine species would migrate towards the temperate to sub-polar regions. Extinctions would occur in tropical regions because of a species inability to migrate, while species in colder waters would be faced with both the same negative impact due to temperature increase plus the impact of invasive species (increased predation and competition). Semi-closed bodies of water (ex: the Mediterranean, the Red Sea), could experience high levels of extinction because of the species' inability to migrate due to geography.

The study pointed out the rate of extinction would be much lower than for terrestrial animals, the theory being that marine animals have a higher dispersal ability and can more easily migrate to suitable habitats. However, the impact by and to human populations can also enter into all of this in the form of decreased fishing in low income tropical economies - economies that depend on seafood on a very basic subsistence level, and in decreased fish populations in colder waters due to industrialized fishing for moderate to high income economies.

We often look to the Arctic and Antarctic for critical signs of climate change, indicators of profound changes. But we must realize it is a worldwide change which challenges all of nature, including man, on many different levels.

Scientists Confer: signs of progress in ocean conservation

The annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science recently concluded in Chicago and one of the results of the meeting was a recognition of progress in several areas of ocean conservation, particularly regarding fishery management in developing areas and coral reef health in protected or managed areas.

Several areas were cited for improved sealife populations due to effective fisheries management including Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Vanuatu. These regions were able to develop management programs that involved local communities in determining and managing protected areas. One of the challenges being faced is in "mid-development" countries - countries that have a growing commercial need for fishing but do not have the infrastructure in place to effectively manage their ocean resources. Poorer nations do not have the commercial means to severely impact their local sealife populations whereas well-developed countries have the required infrastructure in place to implement and enforce management policies. In between are the transitional mid-development countries that need both large bureaucratic and local community involvement - and there are places that have done that successfully.

"One of the things that we’re seeing that is giving me some signs of hope is that in many places throughout the Western Indian Ocean, there’s a real trend toward co-management. We’re seeing a very big devolution of power of managing of coastal resources from centralized governments toward communities," said Josh Cinner, social scientist from James Cook University. "There are some instances where you see examples of blending customary management and contemporary management. Where we do see this happening, we see great success—places like Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, where there is considerably more fish inside of these community-managed areas."

During the annual meeting, it was also noted that healthy reef marine ecosystems have been shown to better withstand changes in their environment (temperature change, coral bleaching, etc.) - much like a healthy individual's ability to better ward off diseases due to good health that builds a strong immune system. The Pacific's Northern Line Islands were cited as an example and broader success is hoped for as these islands are within the larger U.S. National Marine Monument recently established.